The National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on the Step-by-Step Electricity Price Policy for the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry” on August 8. This is a concrete implementation of the country’s further green price mechanism and the full play of the guiding role of electricity price signals.Analysts said that my country’s deepening of electricity price reform will play an important role in promoting the continuous energy saving and emission reduction of my country’s electrolytic aluminum industry, improving energy utilization efficiency, and helping to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
Wang Xianwei, a researcher at the Industrial Products Division of China Securities Futures, said that the notice has a relatively large impact on electrolytic aluminum companies including: first, stepped electricity price grading and price increase standards, and second, prohibiting the implementation of preferential electricity price policies for the electrolytic aluminum industry.
Specifically, point, according to the comprehensive AC power consumption of the aluminum liquid to classify the electrolytic aluminum industry’s step-by-step electricity price. “The current classification standard is 13650 kWh per ton. Almost all domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises can meet this standard and will not face the risk of price increase in the short term. The standard for 2023 is 13450 kWh, and the standard for 2025 is 13300 kWh. At present, only a few companies have reached this standard in the context of scale and technological upgrading.” Wang Xianwei said that most companies have to face management and technological upgrading issues if they want to reach the standard.In addition, the notice encourages electrolytic aluminum companies to increase the utilization level of non-aqueous renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and reduce prices for incentives.
The second point is that it will have a significant impact on most current aluminum companies, and the direct impact is the increase in electricity costs. “It is understood that due to the long-term losses of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the past few years, most aluminum enterprises have negotiated with the local government, power grids and power plants and obtained preferential electricity prices. For enterprises with self-provided power plants, they have charged correspondingly for their own electricity consumption. Government funds and surcharges, system reserve fees, and policy cross-subsidies. These benefits will all be cancelled in the future, and the production costs of enterprises will increase.” Wang Xianwei said.
Gu Fengda, director of the research and consulting department of Guosen Futures, said that my country’s aluminum industry is under pressure to achieve the goal of achieving carbon peaks in 2025 ahead of schedule.From the perspective of the energy consumption structure of the aluminum industry, coal is the dominant energy source for aluminum smelting and alumina refining in China, accounting for 85% of aluminum smelting energy and 87% of alumina refining energy.The supply chain of raw materials from mining to delivery accounts for 22% of the total greenhouse gas emissions of primary aluminum. Among them, coal accounts for 68% of the energy supply of alumina refining. The production of one ton of electrolytic aluminum will produce an average of 12 tons of carbon emissions.
From the perspective of energy consumption in the global aluminum industry, China’s electrolytic aluminum production accounts for about 55%-60% of the world’s total production. It also relies on coal and other resources as raw materials for power generation. According to data, about 70% of the emissions from global aluminum production come from China. “Therefore, as an important engine for long-term stimulating global aluminum consumption, China’s aluminum industry will have heavy and time constraints in energy structure adjustment during the XNUMXth Five-Year Plan period. In particular, the test of European carbon trade tariffs is gradually approaching, facing the complex international political economy. The situation and the explosive growth of trade remedy cases, the transformation and upgrading of my country’s aluminum industry and energy conservation and emission reduction are the general trend and the severe test they face.” Gu Fengda said.
Wang Xianwei pointed out that under the background of dual control of energy consumption and dual carbon, electrolytic aluminum enterprises as one of the high energy consumption have to face the adjustment of energy structure.The notice is conducive to promoting the industry to continue to increase investment in technological transformation, continuously improve energy efficiency, and reduce carbon emissions.For enterprises, although they will face rising costs in the short term, in the long term it will help accelerate the transformation and upgrading and promote the healthy and long-term development of the industry.
It is understood that the early implementation of the differential electricity price policy in the electrolytic aluminum industry has achieved results, and the tiered electricity price policy has been implemented since 2013.From the perspective of the implementation effect, the differentiated electricity price policy has played a positive role in promoting the electrolytic aluminum industry to resolve excess capacity, promoting the technological progress of the entire industry, accelerating the upgrading and transformation of enterprises, and improving the overall energy efficiency level.Driven by the effectiveness of policies and the endogenous driving force of enterprises, the energy consumption of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased in recent years. The comprehensive AC power consumption per ton of aluminum and aluminum ingots has dropped from 2004 kWh in 14795 to 2020 kWh in 13543, a drop of more than 1200. Kilowatt hours.
This policy revision adapts to the actual development of the industry, takes into account the relationship between energy conservation in production processes and energy consumption in environmental protection transformation, and meets the requirements of the dual-carbon target.Gu Fengda said that after years of clean-up and rectification of the electrolytic aluminum industry, supply-side structural reforms have promoted the formation of a ceiling for electrolytic aluminum production capacity and solved the serious surplus problem caused by the disorderly expansion of production capacity that has plagued the industry for many years. Since then, through continuous improvement of environmental protection and technology It is required to promote the transformation and upgrading of my country’s electrolytic aluminum industry.
“Faced with the explosion of demand in the field of new energy and new infrastructure and the requirements of the green energy transition under the’dual carbon’ goal, the supply and demand growth of non-ferrous metals in my country will diverge in the future, and most of the non-ferrous metals supply will face restrictions, which are related to the green energy revolution. The consumption potential of non-ferrous products such as copper, aluminum, nickel, cobalt and lithium will be further stimulated.” Gu Fengda believes that the aluminum industry, as a field with large carbon emissions in the non-ferrous metal industry, will surely accelerate the pace of green and low-carbon transformation in the next five years.Effectively controlling production capacity, optimizing the energy structure, innovating low-carbon technologies, and increasing the use of scrap aluminum are the key paths for the aluminum industry to achieve carbon peaks. The use of market-oriented measures such as carbon emission trading mechanisms will also contribute to the green, low-carbon and sustainable development of the aluminum industry. Play an important role.Under multiple measures, the aluminum industry will usher in a historical transformation and development period of “emission reduction, volume control, and price-guaranteed upgrade”.
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