Overnight crude oil once hit a record high of 89 US dollars. The Turkish issue is indeed looking for reasons to promote the rise of the long-term funds that entered the crude oil market of copper price in the past two weeks. Unconsciously, the original goal of the original 90 dollars is about to become a reality. We really need to think about how such a market will evolve.
First, the resolution of geopolitical issues often ends abruptly, especially with local problems like Turkey and Iraq. Therefore, the bears seem to have a glimmer of hope for a serious quilt position. But we believe that the fundamental reason to push the price increase is from the demand for crude oil. Perhaps the price of agricultural products as an alternative energy source has been strong and reflects this. The price of gold as a major commodity for value preservation or even value-adding has always been rising. Therefore, we believe that the future target of crude oil will exceed 100 US dollars, and the current 80 US dollars has become a shock center. In the short term, the price will be around 80 US dollars.
Concussion, the market did not have a sharp correction. Basic metal copper continues to adjust today, and the price is currently back to $7930. We believe that the rise in base metals is indeed stagnant at the moment, but it does not mean that the future will fall into the fall. The domestic market continues to be affected by the spot price drop of 600 yuan / ton today, and the futures price has also dropped by about 600 yuan / ton, and the intraday price has seen a low point. From the perspective of the price of aluminum, today’s forward contract wears 19,000 yuan / ton, which triggered a short liquidation of the aluminum plant, which reflects the interests of the aluminum plant. As sellers, they do not want prices to go down all the time, so such a wide shock market will continue in the short term. Our view of copper remains unchanged and we are bullish in the medium term. Investors should not chase the air.
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